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Capital Markets Day 2025

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25 March 2026

WNC 2026: Three long-term trends we can’t ignore

Evidence-based and consumer-centric regulation of tobacco and nicotine products can drive continued improvements in public health outcomes, says Chief Consumer Officer Paola Pocci.

Over the next two years, the development of the revised Tobacco Product Directive (EUTPD) will have an impact on the lives of the 110 million smokers and nicotine consumers in the European Union.

Speaking on the first day of the inaugural World Nicotine Congress (WNC) in Brussels, Paola highlighted three long-terms trends that should be defining the policymaking process.

Scientific consensus

There’s a large and growing body of evidence around next generation products (NGP), Paola told the audience, with more than 10,000 scientific studies published on vaping alone since 2010.

Findings under the microscope are echoed by the positive real-world impact of NGP in New Zealand and Sweden, nations that have recognised the potential public health benefits of NGP, where smoking rates have halved in recent years.

In Greece, where a national plan embraces harm reduction alongside prevention and cessation measures – and where Imperial Brands has built a business which is more than 50 per cent NGP – smoking incidence has recently fallen by a quarter.

“Looking ahead”, said Paola, “we cannot let an excessive focus on absolute risk – the so-called precautionary principle – undermine the tangible benefits that our focus on relative risk – harm reduction – has delivered over the past two decades.”

Behavioural science

Our deepening understanding of behavioural science mean we can now we can now more accurately understand the real-world behaviour of smokers and nicotine users, and how they actually use our NGP to potentially replace cigarette smoking.

Imperial Brands studies, which have sought to replicate the real-world environment as closely as possible, looked at the behaviour of smokers with no intention to quit when introduced to smoke-free nicotine products. 

After six months, between a third and 50 per cent of participants either significantly reduced smoking or quit altogether. 

Paola said: “As we consider the long-term policies which will define the choices of smokers and nicotine users, we no longer need to rely on ‘gut instinct’ or ‘common sense’. There is now a wealth of data and insights out there to guide the important policymaking decisions.”

Geopolitical environment

The third theme highlighted by Paola is a radical change in the geopolitical environment. Hostile state actors are collaborating with organised crime, with human trafficking, drugs and illegal tobacco and vapes all part of their armoury.

The number of counterfeit and contraband cigarettes sold in Europe topped 52 billion last year, more than 10 per cent of the market. In Germany, seizures of illicit NGP increased by almost 30 per cent in 2025. 

Any new regulations, said Paola, should address not only the growing supply – through strong law enforcement – but also the root causes of demand for illegal products.

“There are warnings from other countries, where excessive cost and limits on choice have created a tipping point where the illicit market crowds out the legal, regulated sector”, said Paola. “At that moment, the public health goals we all share are put in jeopardy.”

The road ahead

Summing up, Paola said: “I am confident that we can set the right long-term course for tobacco and nicotine regulation – one that is evidence-based, proportionate and delivers continued improvements in health outcomes across Europe.

“We need an approach which reflects the very different risk profiles across nicotine products and one which prevents the spread of the illegal trade by ensuring adult consumers have access to a sufficient choice of products.

“Above all, we need an approach centred around smokers and nicotine consumers. This will be vital as we all seek to build strong regulation which stands the test of time.”

To hear more from Paola look out for the next edition of our LinkedIn newsletter, The Challenger, in May

I am confident that we can set the right long-term course for tobacco and nicotine regulation – one that is evidence-based, proportionate and delivers continued improvements in health outcomes across Europe.

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